Westside Park · Analysis updated 07:27 UTC
Ulverstone vs Kingborough Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Ulverstone and 3.83 for Kingborough Lions, a combined total of 4.63. That distribution gives Kingborough Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kingborough Lions win
88.8% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 3.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ulverstone home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kingborough Lions away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kingborough Lions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 4% / 7% / 89% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Ulverstone and 3.83 for Kingborough Lions, a combined 4.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
11%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
96%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–39.1%
- 0–48.7%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–27.2%
- 1–47.0%
Recent form
Ulverstone
- 2026-08-08T04:30:00.000Z · H vs South East Utd. · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-02T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Clarence Zebras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-19T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Glenorchy Knights · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-11T04:00:00.000Z · A vs South Hobart · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Kingborough Lions · 2-1 (W)
Kingborough Lions
- 2026-08-29T04:00:00.000Z · A vs South Hobart · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T06:45:00.000Z · H vs Launceston City · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Devonport City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Clarence Zebras · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Launceston United · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tasmania NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 49 | 47 |
| 2 | Devonport City | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 43 |
| 3 | Kingborough Lions | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 43 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 5 | Clarence Zebras | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 27 |
| 6 | Riverside | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | South East Utd. | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -25 | 21 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 17 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 18 | 1 | 2 | 15 | -44 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | -45 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kingborough Lions win, at 88.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.