Umea Energi Arena SOL · Analysis updated 03:24 UTC
Umea FF vs IFK Östersund Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Umea FF and 2.18 for IFK Östersund, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives IFK Östersund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
IFK Östersund win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Umea FF home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
IFK Östersund away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.4%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–36.1%
Recent form
Umea FF
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fransta · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Friska Viljor · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Umeå · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Umeå FC Akademi · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Storfors · 0-3 (L)
IFK Östersund
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Luleå · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kubikenborg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucksta · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Boden · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Täfteå · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-21T14:00:00.000Z · Umea FF 1-1 IFK Östersund (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Umea FF 3-2 IFK Östersund (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2024-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · Umea FF 2-0 IFK Östersund (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2024-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · Umea FF 2-1 IFK Östersund (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2023-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · Umea FF 0-2 IFK Östersund (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2023-04-23T14:00:00.000Z · Umea FF 4-0 IFK Östersund (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2021-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · Umea FF 2-0 IFK Östersund (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2021-06-19T13:00:00.000Z · Umea FF 6-1 IFK Östersund (Division 2 - Norrland)
Division 2 - Norrland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skellefteå | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 27 |
| 1 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Täfteå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 25 |
| 2 | Gottne | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Lucksta | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | Boden | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 11 |
| 5 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Storfors | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 6 | Umea FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 4 |
| 7 | Fransta | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is IFK Östersund win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.