Umea Energi Arena SOL · Analysis updated 20:20 UTC
Umea FF vs Storfors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Umea FF and 1.68 for Storfors, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives Umea FF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Umea FF win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Umea FF home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Storfors away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–15.8%
Recent form
Umea FF
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Umeå FC Akademi · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Storfors · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fransta · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Friska Viljor · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Umeå · 4-0 (W)
Storfors
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå FC Akademi · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Fransta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Friska Viljor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Umeå · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Umea FF · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Umea FF 0-3 Storfors (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · Umea FF 1-4 Storfors (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2023-10-08T14:00:00.000Z · Umea FF 7-1 Storfors (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2023-06-22T17:30:00.000Z · Umea FF 4-0 Storfors (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2021-08-25T17:30:00.000Z · Umea FF 4-2 Storfors (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2021-06-23T17:00:00.000Z · Umea FF 2-0 Storfors (Division 2 - Norrland)
Division 2 - Norrland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skellefteå | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 27 |
| 1 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Täfteå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 25 |
| 2 | Gottne | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Lucksta | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | Boden | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 11 |
| 5 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Storfors | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 6 | Umea FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 4 |
| 7 | Fransta | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Umea FF win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.