Umeå W vs Elfsborg W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.66 expected goals for Umeå W and 1.63 for Elfsborg W, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Elfsborg W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.

Model pick

Elfsborg W to Win

60.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.66 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Umeå W win15%

Draw24%

Elfsborg W win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

0–116.5%
0–213.4%
1–110.9%
0–010.1%
1–28.9%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Elfsborg W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 15% / 24% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.66 goals for Umeå W and 1.63 for Elfsborg W, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 39%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Model confidence
Elfsborg W to Win is the headline pick at 61% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Umeå W

Elfsborg W

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Elitettan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Elfsborg W	14	10	4	0	26	34
2	Linköping W	14	10	3	1	15	33
3	Göteborg W	14	9	4	1	23	31
4	KIF Örebro W	14	10	1	3	11	31
5	Umeå W	14	6	3	5	4	21
6	Trelleborg W	13	6	3	4	2	21
7	Enskede W	14	5	3	6	-2	18
8	Örebro SK W	14	5	3	6	-3	18
9	Jitex W	14	5	3	6	-4	18
10	Husqvarna W	14	4	4	6	-5	16
11	Alingsås W	14	2	5	7	-10	11
12	Gamla Upsala W	13	2	4	7	-9	10
13	Sandviken W	14	1	3	10	-28	6
14	Häcken II W	14	0	1	13	-20	1

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.