UMM Salal vs Al Kharaitiyat Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for UMM Salal and 0.63 for Al Kharaitiyat, a combined total of 1.97. That distribution gives UMM Salal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

UMM Salal win

54.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.34 – 0.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

UMM Salal home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Kharaitiyat away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UMM Salal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 28% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for UMM Salal and 0.63 for Al Kharaitiyat, a combined 1.97 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

UMM Salal win54%

Draw28%

Al Kharaitiyat win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score35%

Correct score

1–018.7%
0–013.9%
2–012.6%
1–111.8%
0–18.8%

Recent form

UMM Salal

2026-08-30T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Mesaimeer · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-25T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Qatar U23 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokeren-Temse · 0-5 (L)
2026-05-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-27T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli Doha · 1-3 (L)

Al Kharaitiyat

2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UMM Salal · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Mesaimeer · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Khor · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Shamal II · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shahaniya · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

QSL Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Shamal	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	Al-Duhail SC	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	UMM Salal	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Qatar SC	2	1	1	0	1	4
5	Al Waab	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	Al Wakrah	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Lusail City	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Al-Gharafa	1	1	0	0	2	3
9	Muaither SC	2	1	0	1	1	3
10	Al Shahaniya	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Al-Rayyan SC	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Al Ahli Doha	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Al Kharaitiyat	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Al-Markhiya	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Al-Sailiya	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Al-Arabi SC	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Al Mesaimeer	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Al-Khor	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Al Bidda SC	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is UMM Salal win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.