Thani bin Jassim Stadium · Referee A. Al Athbah · Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
UMM Salal vs Qatar SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for UMM Salal and 1.60 for Qatar SC, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives UMM Salal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UMM Salal home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Qatar SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UMM Salal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 23% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for UMM Salal and 1.60 for Qatar SC, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
UMM Salal
- 2026-08-30T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Mesaimeer · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-25T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Qatar U23 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokeren-Temse · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-27T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli Doha · 1-3 (L)
Qatar SC
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Rayyan SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Arabi SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Doha · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Sadd · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-08-20T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Wakrah · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Duhail SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Al Ahli Doha | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Al Shahaniya | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Lusail City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Al Wakrah | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 2 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.