Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi · Referee Berkay Erdemir · Analysis updated 21:06 UTC
Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 0.43 for Boluspor, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Ümraniyespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ümraniyespor win
75.4% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 0.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ümraniyespor home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Boluspor away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ümraniyespor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 18% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Ümraniyespor and 0.43 for Boluspor, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–017.5%
- 1–017.2%
- 3–011.9%
- 0–08.5%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Ümraniyespor
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanspor FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarıyer · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bandırmaspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Antalyaspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pendikspor · 0-1 (L)
Boluspor
- 2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Iğdır FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Antalyaspor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarıyer · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pendikspor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Iğdır FK | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 26 |
| 3 | Bursaspor | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Keçiörengücü | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Batman Petrolspor | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Muğlaspor | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Mardin 1969 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 9 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Sarıyer | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| 12 | Bodrum FK | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 14 | Sivasspor | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Esenler Erokspor | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 16 | Manisa F.K. | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Vanspor FK | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 18 | Pendikspor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -22 | 5 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ümraniyespor win, at 75.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.