Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.53 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.45 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Kayserispor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Kayserispor win

60.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.53 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ümraniyespor home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kayserispor away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kayserispor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 13% / 27% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.53 goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.45 for Kayserispor, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Ümraniyespor win13%

Draw27%

Kayserispor win60%

Double chance 1X

40%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

87%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score31%

Correct score

0–120.1%
0–214.6%
0–013.9%
1–110.6%
1–27.7%

Recent form

Ümraniyespor

2026-10-24T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Sivasspor · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanspor FK · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarıyer · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bandırmaspor · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Antalyaspor · 1-2 (L)

Kayserispor

2026-10-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Pendikspor · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Batman Petrolspor · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Antalyaspor · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Manisa F.K. · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mardin 1969 · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bursaspor	12	9	1	2	15	28
2	Kayserispor	12	8	3	1	17	27
3	Iğdır FK	12	8	2	2	8	26
4	Batman Petrolspor	12	7	2	3	4	23
5	Keçiörengücü	12	5	5	2	8	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Antalyaspor	12	6	0	6	-1	18
9	Bodrum FK	12	4	5	3	4	17
10	Fatih Karagümrük	12	4	4	4	1	16
11	Sarıyer	12	4	4	4	-3	16
12	Bandırmaspor	12	3	5	4	7	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	3	4	4	3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	2	7	3	-3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	12	2	6	4	-4	12
16	Pendikspor	12	2	5	5	-9	11
17	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
18	Vanspor FK	12	3	3	6	-9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	1	2	9	-22	5
20	Boluspor	11	0	1	10	-22	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kayserispor win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.