Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi · Referee Erdem Mertoglu, Türkiye · Analysis updated 05:01 UTC
Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.13 for Sarıyer, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Ümraniyespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ümraniyespor home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sarıyer away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–110.3%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.91 | 48.5% | 51.3% | 1.95 | +2.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 39.5% | 39.6% | 2.53 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.5% | 27.6% | 3.62 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 67.1% | 67.2% | 1.49 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.3% | 72.4% | 1.38 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.75 | 33.0% | 32.8% | 3.05 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.6% | 60.4% | 1.66 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 51.5% | 48.7% | 2.05 | -2.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Ümraniyespor
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanspor FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarıyer · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bandırmaspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Antalyaspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pendikspor · 0-1 (L)
Sarıyer
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sivasspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodrum FK · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ümraniyespor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Boluspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandırmaspor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · Ümraniyespor 1-1 Sarıyer (1. Lig)
- 2026-03-06T13:00:00.000Z · Ümraniyespor 2-1 Sarıyer (1. Lig)
- 2025-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · Ümraniyespor 1-3 Sarıyer (1. Lig)
- 2016-03-11T12:30:00.000Z · Ümraniyespor 1-0 Sarıyer (2. Lig)
- 2015-10-30T10:30:00.000Z · Ümraniyespor 2-0 Sarıyer (2. Lig)
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bursaspor | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Kayserispor | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 26 |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Keçiörengücü | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Muğlaspor | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Mardin 1969 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | Bodrum FK | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 11 | Sarıyer | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 14 | Sivasspor | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Esenler Erokspor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Pendikspor | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 11 |
| 17 | Manisa F.K. | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -22 | 5 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.