Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 0.92 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Ümraniyespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.4% probability

High confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.18 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ümraniyespor home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sivasspor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ümraniyespor win42%

Draw30%

Sivasspor win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–014.4%
1–113.3%
0–012.2%
0–111.3%
2–08.5%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.0%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 58.3% vs market 45.8%, edge +12.5 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	2.05	45.8%	58.3%	1.72	+12.5
Match result	Home	2.20	41.3%	41.8%	2.39	+0.5
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.33	70.9%	71.4%	1.40	+0.5
Match result	Draw	3.10	29.3%	29.6%	3.38	+0.3
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.62	58.2%	58.1%	1.72	-0.1
Double chance	Home/Away	1.33	70.9%	70.3%	1.42	-0.6
Match result	Away	3.10	29.3%	28.5%	3.51	-0.8
Both teams to score	Yes	1.73	54.2%	41.7%	2.40	-12.5

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Ümraniyespor

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanspor FK · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarıyer · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bandırmaspor · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Antalyaspor · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pendikspor · 0-1 (L)

Sivasspor

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarıyer · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bandırmaspor · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pendikspor · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Keçiörengücü · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muğlaspor · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-03-15T10:30:00.000Z · Ümraniyespor 0-1 Sivasspor (1. Lig)
2025-11-01T13:00:00.000Z · Ümraniyespor 1-0 Sivasspor (1. Lig)
2023-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · Ümraniyespor 0-2 Sivasspor (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-05-07T10:30:00.000Z · Ümraniyespor 4-1 Sivasspor (Süper Lig)
2022-11-12T11:30:00.000Z · Ümraniyespor 2-2 Sivasspor (Süper Lig)
2017-04-18T12:30:00.000Z · Ümraniyespor 0-0 Sivasspor (1. Lig)
2016-11-19T10:00:00.000Z · Ümraniyespor 4-1 Sivasspor (1. Lig)

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kayserispor	11	8	2	1	17	26
2	Bursaspor	11	8	1	2	13	25
3	Iğdır FK	11	7	2	2	7	23
4	Keçiörengücü	11	5	5	1	10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
7	Antalyaspor	11	6	0	5	0	18
8	Sarıyer	11	4	4	3	-1	16
9	Muğlaspor	11	3	6	2	-1	15
10	Bandırmaspor	11	3	5	3	8	14
11	Bodrum FK	11	3	5	3	3	14
12	Sivasspor	11	2	7	2	1	13
13	Fatih Karagümrük	11	3	4	4	-1	13
14	Esenler Erokspor	11	2	6	3	-3	12
15	Ümraniyespor	10	2	4	4	-1	10
16	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
17	Pendikspor	11	2	4	5	-9	10
18	Vanspor FK	11	2	3	6	-12	7
19	İstanbulspor	11	1	2	8	-17	5
20	Boluspor	10	0	1	9	-19	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.