Terrain Jos Bloes · Analysis updated 19:28 UTC
UN Kaerjeng 97 vs Marisca Mersch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.84 expected goals for UN Kaerjeng 97 and 1.30 for Marisca Mersch, a combined total of 4.14. That distribution gives UN Kaerjeng 97 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UN Kaerjeng 97 win
69.3% probability
Expected goals
2.84 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UN Kaerjeng 97 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marisca Mersch away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UN Kaerjeng 97 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 16% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.84 goals for UN Kaerjeng 97 and 1.30 for Marisca Mersch, a combined 4.14 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.5%
- 3–06.1%
- 1–15.9%
Recent form
UN Kaerjeng 97
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Syra Mensdorf · 9-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs F91 Dudelange · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Rosport · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Differdange 03 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swift Hesperange · 6-0 (W)
Marisca Mersch
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiltz · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ALSS Luxembourg · 4-2 (W)
- 2024-11-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UN Kaerjeng 97 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UN Kaerjeng 97 win, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.