UN Kaerjeng 97 vs Résidence Walferdange Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for UN Kaerjeng 97 and 2.50 for Résidence Walferdange, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Résidence Walferdange the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Résidence Walferdange win

49.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 2.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

UN Kaerjeng 97 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Résidence Walferdange away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Résidence Walferdange to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 32% / 19% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for UN Kaerjeng 97 and 2.50 for Résidence Walferdange, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

UN Kaerjeng 97 win32%

Draw19%

Résidence Walferdange win50%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

1–26.9%
2–26.9%
1–35.8%
2–35.8%
1–15.6%

Recent form

UN Kaerjeng 97

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Syra Mensdorf · 9-1 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs F91 Dudelange · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Rosport · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Differdange 03 · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swift Hesperange · 6-0 (W)

Résidence Walferdange

2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Differdange 03 · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grevenmacher · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swift Hesperange · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · UN Kaerjeng 97 1-2 Résidence Walferdange (National Division)

National Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	10	9	1	0	17	28
2	FC Differdange 03	10	9	0	1	22	27
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	10	8	0	2	9	24
4	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	7	0	3	12	21
5	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	10	5	4	1	13	19
6	Atert Bissen	10	6	1	3	11	19
7	Progres Niederkorn	11	6	1	4	7	19
8	Résidence Walferdange	10	5	1	4	0	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	4	1	5	0	13
10	US Hostert	10	3	2	5	-3	11
11	AS Jeunesse Esch	10	3	1	6	-5	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	2	2	6	-8	8
13	Etzella Ettelbruck	11	2	2	7	-10	8
14	US Rumelange	10	2	1	7	-16	7
15	Wiltz	10	1	1	8	-13	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	0	0	10	-36

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Résidence Walferdange win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.