UNA Strassen vs La Fiorita Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for UNA Strassen and 0.80 for La Fiorita, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives UNA Strassen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

UNA Strassen win

61.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

UNA Strassen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
La Fiorita away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UNA Strassen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 23% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for UNA Strassen and 0.80 for La Fiorita, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

UNA Strassen win61%

Draw23%

La Fiorita win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.3%
2–012.1%
1–110.6%
2–19.6%
0–07.4%

Recent form

UNA Strassen

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs US Esch · 8-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Résidence Walferdange · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atert Bissen · 2-1 (W)

La Fiorita

2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Murata · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Domagnano · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentino · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marino Academy · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-14T19:00:00.000Z · UNA Strassen 2-0 La Fiorita (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-07-07T17:15:00.000Z · UNA Strassen 1-0 La Fiorita (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is UNA Strassen win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.