UNA Strassen vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for UNA Strassen and 0.90 for Racing FC Union Luxembourg, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives UNA Strassen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

UNA Strassen win

57.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

UNA Strassen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UNA Strassen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for UNA Strassen and 0.90 for Racing FC Union Luxembourg, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

UNA Strassen win57%

Draw23%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.4%
1–111.1%
2–010.8%
2–19.7%
0–07.1%

Recent form

UNA Strassen

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs US Esch · 8-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Résidence Walferdange · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atert Bissen · 2-1 (W)

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atert Bissen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hosingen · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Progres Niederkorn · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Jeunesse Esch · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs F91 Dudelange · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	10	9	1	0	17	28
2	FC Differdange 03	10	9	0	1	22	27
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	10	8	0	2	9	24
4	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	7	0	3	12	21
5	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	10	5	4	1	13	19
6	Atert Bissen	10	6	1	3	11	19
7	Progres Niederkorn	11	6	1	4	7	19
8	Résidence Walferdange	10	5	1	4	0	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	4	1	5	0	13
10	US Hostert	10	3	2	5	-3	11
11	AS Jeunesse Esch	10	3	1	6	-5	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	2	2	6	-8	8
13	Etzella Ettelbruck	11	2	2	7	-10	8
14	US Rumelange	10	2	1	7	-16	7
15	Wiltz	10	1	1	8	-13	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	0	0	10	-36

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is UNA Strassen win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.