· Analysis updated 13:10 UTC
UNA Strassen vs Victoria Rosport Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for UNA Strassen and 0.71 for Victoria Rosport, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives UNA Strassen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UNA Strassen win
79.9% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UNA Strassen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Victoria Rosport away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UNA Strassen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 13% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for UNA Strassen and 0.71 for Victoria Rosport, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.9%
- 3–010.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
UNA Strassen
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs US Esch · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Résidence Walferdange · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atert Bissen · 2-1 (W)
Victoria Rosport
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swift Hesperange · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanem · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs UN Kaerjeng 97 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs US Hostert · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Atert Bissen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -36 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UNA Strassen win, at 79.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.