UNA vs FC Lisse Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for UNA and 1.73 for FC Lisse, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives FC Lisse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

FC Lisse win

50.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

UNA home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Lisse away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Lisse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 26% / 24% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for UNA and 1.73 for FC Lisse, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

UNA win26%

Draw24%

FC Lisse win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.2%
1–29.6%
0–19.5%
0–28.2%
2–16.6%

Recent form

UNA

2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs UDI '19 · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Poortugaal · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Blauw Geel · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dongen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GOES · 1-2 (L)

FC Lisse

2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Rijnvogels · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gemert · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs EVV · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zwaluwen · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TOGB · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Derde Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Harkemase Boys	11	8	2	1	10	26
1	Noordwijk	11	9	1	1	21	28
2	ACV	11	7	3	1	16	24
2	FC Lisse	11	9	1	1	18	28
3	VV Scherpenzeel	11	7	3	1	8	24
3	Excelsior Maassluis	11	8	2	1	15	26
4	TEC	11	7	2	2	15	23
4	Rijnvogels	11	7	2	2	16	23
5	Excelsior '31	11	7	1	3	15	22
5	UDI '19	11	6	2	3	10	20
6	SC Genemuiden	11	7	1	3	7	22
6	Zwaluwen	11	6	1	4	-1	19
7	Sportlust '46	11	5	4	2	2	19
7	Poortugaal	11	6	0	5	-1	18
8	Purmersteijn	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Dongen	11	5	1	5	-1	16
9	Sparta Nijkerk	11	5	2	4	3	17
9	Gemert	11	3	5	3	-3	14
10	ADO '20	11	4	2	5	-2	14
10	GOES	11	4	2	5	-7	14
11	Hoogeveen	11	4	1	6	-1	13
11	Blauw Geel	11	3	3	5	-2	12
12	Hercules	11	4	1	6	-7	13
12	TOGB	11	3	3	5	-6	12
13	Eemdijk	10	3	1	6	-13	10
13	UNA	11	2	5	4	-2	11
14	DVS 33 Ermelo	11	2	3	6	-5	9
14	Roosendaal	11	3	2	6	-5	11
15	Staphorst	11	2	3	6	-8	9
15	Groene Ster	11	2	3	6	-12	9
16	Dovo	11	1	3	7	-13	6
16	Vvsb	11	2	2	7	-10	8
17	Hollandia	10	1	2	7	-11	5
17	Achilles Veen	11	2	0	9	-17	6
18	SVZW	11	0	1	10	-20	1
18	EVV	11	0	3	8	-13	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Lisse win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.