Nicaragua National Football Stadium · Analysis updated 16:49 UTC
UNAN Managua vs Jalapa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for UNAN Managua and 0.40 for Jalapa, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives UNAN Managua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UNAN Managua win
73.9% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UNAN Managua home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jalapa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.0%
- 2–018.1%
- 3–011.5%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–17.6%
Recent form
UNAN Managua
- 2026-08-31T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Managua · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Walter Ferretti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Jalapa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T23:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Diriangén · 1-1 (D)
Jalapa
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs H&H Export · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Estelí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Managua · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Walter Ferretti · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z · UNAN Managua 2-1 Jalapa (Primera Division)
- 2026-04-08T22:00:00.000Z · UNAN Managua 2-4 Jalapa (Primera Division)
- 2026-02-09T02:00:00.000Z · UNAN Managua 0-0 Jalapa (Primera Division)
- 2025-10-23T21:00:00.000Z · UNAN Managua 0-5 Jalapa (Primera Division)
- 2025-08-09T23:00:00.000Z · UNAN Managua 5-1 Jalapa (Primera Division)
- 2025-04-09T21:00:00.000Z · UNAN Managua 0-0 Jalapa (Copa Nicaragua)
- 2025-03-05T21:00:00.000Z · UNAN Managua 2-0 Jalapa (Copa Nicaragua)
- 2025-03-02T02:00:00.000Z · UNAN Managua 1-0 Jalapa (Primera Division)
- 2025-01-18T21:00:00.000Z · UNAN Managua 0-0 Jalapa (Primera Division)
- 2024-10-06T21:00:00.000Z · UNAN Managua 0-1 Jalapa (Primera Division)
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 35 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | UNAN Managua | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Estelí | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Walter Ferretti | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 17 |
| 7 | San Marcos | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | Jalapa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Matagalpa | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -22 | 9 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UNAN Managua win, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.