Uni Azzurri vs Mindil Aces Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Uni Azzurri and 1.14 for Mindil Aces, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Uni Azzurri the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

70.0% probability

High confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Uni Azzurri home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mindil Aces away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Uni Azzurri win44%

Draw26%

Mindil Aces win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.4%
1–010.9%
2–18.9%
0–18.7%
2–07.8%

Recent form

Uni Azzurri

2026-07-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Macarthur · 0-3 (L)
2025-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Darwin Olympic · 3-0 (W)
2025-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Darwin Hearts · 2-0 (W)
2025-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mindil Aces · 2-1 (W)
2025-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Darwin Olympic · 1-0 (W)

Mindil Aces

2025-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Uni Azzurri · 1-2 (L)
2025-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Darwin Hearts · 2-1 (W)
2025-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Garuda · 0-0 (D)
2025-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Port Darwin · 1-1 (D)
2025-08-16T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Uni Azzurri · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2025-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · Uni Azzurri 2-1 Mindil Aces (Northern Territory Premier League)
2025-08-16T10:30:00.000Z · Uni Azzurri 1-1 Mindil Aces (Northern Territory Premier League)
2025-06-07T10:30:00.000Z · Uni Azzurri 2-0 Mindil Aces (Northern Territory Premier League)
2025-04-04T11:00:00.000Z · Uni Azzurri 1-0 Mindil Aces (Northern Territory Premier League)
2024-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · Uni Azzurri 0-6 Mindil Aces (Northern Territory Premier League)
2024-06-07T09:00:00.000Z · Uni Azzurri 1-2 Mindil Aces (Northern Territory Premier League)
2024-04-13T06:30:00.000Z · Uni Azzurri 0-2 Mindil Aces (Northern Territory Premier League)
2023-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · Uni Azzurri 4-1 Mindil Aces (Northern Territory Premier League)
2023-06-24T10:30:00.000Z · Uni Azzurri 0-2 Mindil Aces (Northern Territory Premier League)
2023-04-29T10:30:00.000Z · Uni Azzurri 1-5 Mindil Aces (Northern Territory Premier League)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.