Unia Skierniewice vs Legia Warszawa II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Unia Skierniewice and 1.25 for Legia Warszawa II, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Unia Skierniewice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Unia Skierniewice win

63.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.43 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Unia Skierniewice home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Legia Warszawa II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Unia Skierniewice win63%

Draw18%

Legia Warszawa II win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–17.7%
3–17.5%
2–07.5%
1–06.1%

Recent form

Unia Skierniewice

2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Poznań · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Plock · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 1-1 (D)

Legia Warszawa II

2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tychy 71 · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-18T09:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 0-0 Legia Warszawa II (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-05-30T17:45:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 0-0 Legia Warszawa II (III Liga - Group 1)
2024-11-10T11:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 1-2 Legia Warszawa II (III Liga - Group 1)
2024-04-20T15:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 4-0 Legia Warszawa II (III Liga - Group 1)
2023-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 1-2 Legia Warszawa II (III Liga - Group 1)
2023-06-03T10:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 1-1 Legia Warszawa II (III Liga - Group 1)
2022-11-05T12:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 1-0 Legia Warszawa II (III Liga - Group 1)
2022-04-30T11:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 3-2 Legia Warszawa II (III Liga - Group 1)
2021-09-25T09:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 2-0 Legia Warszawa II (III Liga - Group 1)
2021-05-29T10:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 0-0 Legia Warszawa II (III Liga - Group 1)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Unia Skierniewice win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.