Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Unia Skierniewice and 1.60 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Nieciecza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Unia Skierniewice home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nieciecza away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nieciecza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Unia Skierniewice and 1.60 for Nieciecza, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Unia Skierniewice win32%

Draw24%

Nieciecza win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.4%
1–29.1%
0–18.6%
2–17.5%
1–07.1%

Recent form

Unia Skierniewice

2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Plock · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 1-3 (L)

Nieciecza

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Mielec · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-01T17:47:00.000Z · A vs Wigry Suwałki · 5-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	6	3	1	11	21
2	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
3	Ruch Chorzów	11	5	3	3	3	18
4	Polonia Warszawa	10	5	2	3	4	17
5	Nieciecza	10	5	2	3	2	17
6	Lechia Gdansk	10	5	1	4	3	16
7	ŁKS Łódź	10	4	3	3	2	15
8	Miedz Legnica	10	4	2	4	4	14
9	Stal Rzeszów	10	4	2	4	-6	14
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	3	3	4	-1	12
11	Pogoń Siedlce	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Polonia Bytom	10	2	6	2	-2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	-4	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	3	3	4	-8	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	1	8	1	-1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	3	2	5	-1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	3	2	6	-6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	3	0	7	-3	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.