Stadion Miejski · Referee A. Borowiak · Analysis updated 18:51 UTC
Unia Skierniewice vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Unia Skierniewice and 1.58 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unia Skierniewice home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.3%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–211.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Unia Skierniewice
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Plock · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 1-3 (L)
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Unia Skierniewice · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-04T09:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 0-1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-01-24T11:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 2-0 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-02-01T10:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 2-3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-06-08T15:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 0-3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2023-11-18T12:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 2-7 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2023-04-15T13:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 0-4 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2022-09-10T10:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 0-1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2021-06-05T13:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 0-3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2021-04-24T15:00:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 2-4 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2020-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · Unia Skierniewice 0-1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (III Liga - Group 1)
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 3 | Nieciecza | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Miedz Legnica | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Ruch Chorzów | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | ŁKS Łódź | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Polonia Bytom | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszów | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 17 |
| 11 | Arka Gdynia | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Chrobry Głogów | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Stal Mielec | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| 14 | Pogoń Siedlce | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Odra Opole | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Podbeskidzie | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 18 | Unia Skierniewice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.