Unia Skierniewice vs Sokół Ostróda Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Unia Skierniewice and 1.08 for Sokół Ostróda, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Unia Skierniewice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Unia Skierniewice win

47.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Unia Skierniewice home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sokół Ostróda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Unia Skierniewice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Unia Skierniewice and 1.08 for Sokół Ostróda, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Unia Skierniewice win48%

Draw26%

Sokół Ostróda win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–011.3%
2–19.3%
2–08.6%
0–18.0%

Recent form

Unia Skierniewice

2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Poznań · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Plock · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 1-1 (D)

Sokół Ostróda

2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokół Kleczew · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Mławianka Mława · 0-4 (L)
2023-06-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ursus Warszawa · 2-1 (W)
2023-06-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Błonianka Błonie · 2-1 (W)
2023-06-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weszlo	14	10	2	2	14	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	14	9	4	1	17	31
3	Swit	14	8	2	4	8	26
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	7	3	4	7	24
5	Pelikan Łowicz	14	7	3	4	4	24
6	Wisła Płock II	14	6	4	4	4	22
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	6	4	4	4	22
8	Warta Sieradz	14	6	4	4	2	22
9	Olimpia Zambrów	14	6	3	5	1	21
10	Olimpia Elbląg	14	5	3	6	-3	18
11	Jagiellonia II	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Widzew II	14	4	4	6	0	16
13	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	14	4	3	7	-3	15
14	ŁKS Łódź II	14	4	3	7	-4	15
15	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	14	4	2	8	-7	14
16	Mławianka Mława	14	4	2	8	-10	14
17	Troszyn	14	2	5	7	-15	11
18	Łomża	14	0	4	10	-18	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Unia Skierniewice win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.