· Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
União Lamas vs Florgrade Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for União Lamas and 1.07 for Florgrade, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives União Lamas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
União Lamas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Florgrade away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates União Lamas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for União Lamas and 1.07 for Florgrade, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–110.7%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
União Lamas
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sousense · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beira-Mar · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ovarense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Florgrade · 1-1 (D)
Florgrade
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Camacha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanjoanense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Camacha · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs São João Ver · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarda · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · União Lamas 1-1 Florgrade (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2026-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · União Lamas 0-1 Florgrade (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2025-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · União Lamas 1-2 Florgrade (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Machico | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Camacha | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Castro Daire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Sanjoanense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Salgueiros | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Florgrade | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | União Lamas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Estrela Calheta | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Beira-Mar | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Alpendorada | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.