Estádio Comendador Henrique Amorim · Referee Nuno Cruz Oliveira · Analysis updated 06:23 UTC
União Lamas vs Régua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for União Lamas and 1.03 for Régua, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives União Lamas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
União Lamas win
50.1% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
União Lamas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Régua away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates União Lamas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for União Lamas and 1.03 for Régua, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
União Lamas
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sousense · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beira-Mar · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ovarense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Florgrade · 1-1 (D)
Régua
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Marco 09 · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-04-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarda · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Salgueiros · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-03-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs União Lamas · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-03-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gondomar · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Machico | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | Camacha | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Florgrade | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Castro Daire | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Sanjoanense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | União Lamas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Salgueiros | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Cinfães | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Beira-Mar | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | Alpendorada | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Estrela Calheta | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 13 | Sousense | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 14 | Guarda | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is União Lamas win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.