· Analysis updated 21:57 UTC
União Leiria U19 vs Casa Pia U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for União Leiria U19 and 1.51 for Casa Pia U19, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Casa Pia U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Casa Pia U19 win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
União Leiria U19 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casa Pia U19 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Casa Pia U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 25% / 26% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for União Leiria U19 and 1.51 for Casa Pia U19, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
União Leiria U19
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torreense U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oriental U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica U19 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia U19 · 0-0 (D)
Casa Pia U19
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oriental U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs União Leiria U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP U19 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Júniores U19 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Guimaraes U19 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 1 | Benfica U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Porto U19 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Sporting CP U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 3 | Santa Clara U19 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Rio Ave U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Torreense U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Academico Viseu U19 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Oriental U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Casa Pia U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Feirense U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Mafra U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 8 | Famalicão U19 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | SC Farense U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 9 | Moreirense U19 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | União Leiria U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
| 10 | Vizela U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Casa Pia U19 win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.