Arena do União Frederiquense · Analysis updated 07:46 UTC
União RS vs Novo Hamburgo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.45 expected goals for União RS and 1.23 for Novo Hamburgo, a combined total of 1.68. That distribution gives Novo Hamburgo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Novo Hamburgo win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
0.45 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
União RS home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novo Hamburgo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 14% / 30% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.45 goals for União RS and 1.23 for Novo Hamburgo, a combined 1.68 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 24% and both teams to score at 26%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 23%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–122.9%
- 0–018.6%
- 0–214.1%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–08.4%
Recent form
União RS
- 2025-07-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gaúcho · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-07-23T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Santa Maria · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-07-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aimoré · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-07-16T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Real · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-07-11T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Bagé · 0-1 (L)
Novo Hamburgo
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gaúcho - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aimoré | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Inter Santa Maria | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 29 |
| 3 | Passo Fundo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 27 |
| 4 | Novo Hamburgo | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | Gramadense | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Veranópolis | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Bagé | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Lajeadense | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 | Santa Cruz RS | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Brasil Farroupilha | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -5 | 15 |
| 11 | Glória | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Esportivo | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -9 | 11 |
| 13 | União RS | 14 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 14 | Gaúcho | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Real | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | -19 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Novo Hamburgo win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.