Campo Cha das Padeiras · Analysis updated 08:46 UTC
União Santarém vs Lusitano Évora 1911 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for União Santarém and 1.21 for Lusitano Évora 1911, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Lusitano Évora 1911 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.0% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
União Santarém home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lusitano Évora 1911 away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lusitano Évora 1911 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 30% / 29% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for União Santarém and 1.21 for Lusitano Évora 1911, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–28.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 29.3% | 30.0% | 3.33 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.55 | 58.4% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 70.8% | 71.1% | 1.41 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.50 | 37.5% | 37.7% | 2.65 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 41.3% | 41.1% | 2.43 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | 62.3% | 1.61 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.3% | 28.9% | 3.46 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.28 | 70.8% | 70.0% | 1.43 | -0.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
União Santarém
- 2026-10-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Merelinense · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 0-5 (L)
Lusitano Évora 1911
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oliveirense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs União Santarém · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Covilha · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | Fafe | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Leça | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | União Santarém | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | São João Ver | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Mafra | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Vianense | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Louletano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Varzim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Caldas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Guimaraes B | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Trofense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.