Campo Cha das Padeiras · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
União Santarém vs Mafra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for União Santarém and 1.45 for Mafra, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Mafra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Mafra win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
União Santarém home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mafra away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mafra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 25% / 27% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for União Santarém and 1.45 for Mafra, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.5%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–29.1%
Recent form
União Santarém
- 2026-10-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Merelinense · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 0-5 (L)
Mafra
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tirsense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveirense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Covilha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Malveira · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Mafra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Fafe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | São João Ver | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Caldas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Trofense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Guimaraes B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mafra win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.