Campo Chã das Padeiras · Referee Bruno Martins · Analysis updated 23:35 UTC
União Santarém vs Vitoria Setubal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for União Santarém and 1.18 for Vitoria Setubal, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives União Santarém the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
União Santarém win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
União Santarém home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vitoria Setubal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates União Santarém to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for União Santarém and 1.18 for Vitoria Setubal, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
União Santarém
- 2026-10-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Merelinense · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 0-5 (L)
Vitoria Setubal
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UD da Serra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Real · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcains · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventude Évora · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lajense · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bragança | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 48 |
| 2 | Vianense | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 48 |
| 3 | Brito | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | Celoricense | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 5 | Os Limianos | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Tirsense | 26 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 40 |
| 7 | Camacha | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 36 |
| 8 | Chaves II | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 36 |
| 9 | Machico | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | -2 | 36 |
| 10 | AR São Martinho | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | -9 | 34 |
| 11 | Mirandela | 26 | 10 | 2 | 14 | -8 | 32 |
| 12 | Vilaverdense | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -13 | 22 |
| 13 | Ribeira Brava | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -26 | 20 |
| 14 | Monção | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | -30 | 15 |
| 1 | Rebordosa | 26 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 24 | 58 |
| 2 | Leça | 26 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 27 | 51 |
| 3 | Cinfães | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 40 |
| 4 | Beira-Mar | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 38 |
| 5 | Alpendorada | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 38 |
| 6 | Florgrade | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 37 |
| 7 | Vila Meã | 26 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 34 |
| 8 | União Lamas | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -6 | 33 |
| 9 | Salgueiros | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 32 |
| 10 | Aparecida | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 31 |
| 11 | Anadia | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 | Resende | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | -4 | 28 |
| 13 | Vila Real | 26 | 5 | 12 | 9 | -7 | 27 |
| 14 | Gouveia | 26 | 1 | 4 | 21 | -43 | 7 |
| 1 | Vitória de Sernache | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 55 |
| 2 | Oliveira Hospital | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 26 | 50 |
| 3 | Naval | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 48 |
| 4 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 46 |
| 5 | UD da Serra | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 44 |
| 6 | Mortágua | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 39 |
| 7 | Os Marialvas | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 36 |
| 8 | Fátima | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 32 |
| 9 | Lajense | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 32 |
| 10 | Peniche | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 11 | Samora Correir | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 12 | Marinhense | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -18 | 24 |
| 13 | Eléctrico | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | -29 | 19 |
| 14 | Lusitânia | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -24 | 17 |
| 1 | Louletano | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 21 | 50 |
| 2 | Atlético Malveira | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 47 |
| 3 | FC Alverca II | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 47 |
| 4 | Juventude Évora | 26 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 46 |
| 5 | Alcochetense | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Sintrense | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 40 |
| 7 | Lagoa | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 39 |
| 8 | O Elvas | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 34 |
| 9 | FC Serpa | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 | Oriental Lisboa | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | -6 | 32 |
| 11 | Moncarapachense | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 31 |
| 12 | Portimonense | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | -23 | 22 |
| 13 | Comércio Indústria | 26 | 2 | 8 | 16 | -25 | 14 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama Vidigueira | 26 | 1 | 11 | 14 | -36 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is União Santarém win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.