União São João vs XV de Piracicaba Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for União São João and 0.66 for XV de Piracicaba, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives União São João the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

União São João win

49.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 0.66

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

União São João home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
XV de Piracicaba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates União São João to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 31% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for União São João and 0.66 for XV de Piracicaba, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

União São João win49%

Draw31%

XV de Piracicaba win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

1–018.8%
0–015.7%
1–112.3%
2–011.2%
0–110.3%

Recent form

União São João

2026-08-29T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandeirante SP · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs XV de Piracicaba · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Noroeste · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Comercial · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Comercial · 1-0 (W)

XV de Piracicaba

2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs União São João · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Comercial · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Noroeste · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Noroeste · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Comercial · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Copa Paulista table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	São José EC	10	6	3	1	8	21
2	União São João	12	4	7	1	4	19
3	Primavera SP	10	5	3	2	14	18
4	Grêmio Prudente	12	5	3	4	2	18
5	Linense	8	4	3	1	7	15
6	EC São Bernardo	8	4	0	4	4	12
7	Noroeste	10	2	6	2	-1	12
8	Juventus	8	3	2	3	5	11
9	Bandeirante SP	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Comercial	10	3	2	5	-2	11
11	Santo André	6	3	1	2	-1	10
12	Paulista	8	3	1	4	-6	10
13	XV de Piracicaba	6	1	3	2	-2	6
14	Marília	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Oeste	6	1	1	4	-7	4
16	São Caetano	8	0	2	6	-19	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is União São João win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.