· Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
Unión Adarve vs Getafe II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Unión Adarve and 1.73 for Getafe II, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Getafe II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Getafe II win
54.0% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unión Adarve home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Getafe II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Getafe II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 22% / 24% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Unión Adarve and 1.73 for Getafe II, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–06.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.05 | 44.1% | 45.9% | 2.18 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Home | 4.20 | 21.3% | 22.2% | 4.50 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 1.68 | 53.2% | 54.0% | 1.85 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.90 | 47.7% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 76.6% | 76.2% | 1.31 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.73 | 52.3% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.14 | 79.3% | 77.7% | 1.29 | -1.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.5% | 23.7% | 4.22 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Unión Adarve
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrejón · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fuenlabrada · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcobendas Sport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Colonia Moscardó · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes II · 2-0 (W)
Getafe II
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Ávila · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Talavera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrejón · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-19T11:00:00.000Z · Unión Adarve 2-2 Getafe II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2024-09-08T09:30:00.000Z · Unión Adarve 0-2 Getafe II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2024-04-21T10:00:00.000Z · Unión Adarve 0-2 Getafe II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2023-12-10T10:30:00.000Z · Unión Adarve 1-2 Getafe II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Getafe II win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.