· Analysis updated 06:49 UTC
Unión Adarve vs Pozuelo Alarcón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Unión Adarve and 1.28 for Pozuelo Alarcón, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Unión Adarve the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Unión Adarve win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unión Adarve home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pozuelo Alarcón away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Unión Adarve to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Unión Adarve and 1.28 for Pozuelo Alarcón, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Unión Adarve
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Móstoles · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrejón · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fuenlabrada · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcobendas Sport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Colonia Moscardó · 1-1 (D)
Pozuelo Alarcón
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fuenlabrada · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcobendas Sport · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Colonia Moscardó · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Trival Valderas · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Móstoles | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Las Rozas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Colonia Moscardó | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | Galapagar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Cala Pozuelo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Unión Adarve | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Trival Valderas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Leganés II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Torrejón | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | RC Alcobendas | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Aranjuez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Parla Escuela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | SS Reyes II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Alcobendas Sport | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Villanueva Pardillo | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Unión Adarve win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.