Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Union Berlin and 2.00 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives 1. FC Köln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

61.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.93 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union Berlin home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Köln away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Union Berlin win38%

Draw21%

1. FC Köln win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

1–17.6%
1–27.6%
2–17.3%
2–27.3%
1–35.1%

Recent form

Union Berlin

2026-09-26T17:15:00.000Z · A vs HNK Rijeka · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 3-3 (D)

1. FC Köln

2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-02T13:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
2025-12-20T14:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 1-0 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
2024-05-11T13:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 2-3 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
2023-12-20T17:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 2-0 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
2023-03-04T14:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 0-0 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
2022-09-11T13:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 1-0 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
2022-04-01T18:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 1-0 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
2021-11-07T16:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
2021-03-13T14:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 2-1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
2020-11-22T17:00:00.000Z · Union Berlin 2-1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	5	4	1	0	10	13
2	Borussia Dortmund	5	4	1	0	7	13
3	Bayern München	5	3	2	0	12	11
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	0	2	10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	2	2	1	5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	0	8
8	FSV Mainz 05	5	2	1	2	3	7
9	SV Elversberg	5	2	1	2	0	7
10	1. FC Köln	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	VfB Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Hamburger SV	5	2	0	3	-10	6
13	FC Schalke 04	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	1	2	2	-7	5
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	-12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.