· Analysis updated 16:28 UTC
Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Union Berlin and 3.58 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 5.08. That distribution gives FSV Mainz 05 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FSV Mainz 05 win
75.6% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 3.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union Berlin home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Mainz 05 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.1%
- 1–46.4%
- 1–26.0%
- 2–35.4%
- 2–44.8%
Recent form
Union Berlin
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:15:00.000Z · A vs HNK Rijeka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-4 (L)
FSV Mainz 05
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T17:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 3-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2026-01-10T14:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 2-2 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2025-01-19T14:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2024-08-24T13:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-07T17:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2023-08-20T13:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 4-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2023-02-04T14:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2022-08-14T13:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 0-0 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2022-02-26T14:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 3-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2021-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FSV Mainz 05 win, at 75.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.