Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Union Berlin and 2.53 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives RB Leipzig the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

RB Leipzig win

55.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 2.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union Berlin home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
RB Leipzig away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Union Berlin win26%

Draw19%

RB Leipzig win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–27.9%
2–26.7%
1–36.7%
1–16.3%
2–35.7%

Recent form

Union Berlin

2026-09-26T17:15:00.000Z · A vs HNK Rijeka · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 3-3 (D)

RB Leipzig

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-24T18:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 1-3 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2025-12-12T19:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 3-1 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2025-02-01T17:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 0-0 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2024-09-14T13:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 0-0 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2024-02-04T16:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 0-2 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2023-09-03T15:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 0-3 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2023-02-11T17:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 2-1 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2022-08-20T16:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 2-1 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2022-04-23T13:30:00.000Z · Union Berlin 2-1 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2022-04-20T18:45:00.000Z · Union Berlin 1-2 RB Leipzig (DFB Pokal)

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	5	4	1	0	10	13
2	Borussia Dortmund	5	4	1	0	7	13
3	Bayern München	5	3	2	0	12	11
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	0	2	10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	2	2	1	5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	0	8
8	FSV Mainz 05	5	2	1	2	3	7
9	SV Elversberg	5	2	1	2	0	7
10	1. FC Köln	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	VfB Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Hamburger SV	5	2	0	3	-10	6
13	FC Schalke 04	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	1	2	2	-7	5
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	-12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is RB Leipzig win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.