· Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Union Bremen vs OSC Bremerhaven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Union Bremen and 3.33 for OSC Bremerhaven, a combined total of 4.55. That distribution gives OSC Bremerhaven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
OSC Bremerhaven win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 3.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union Bremen home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
OSC Bremerhaven away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates OSC Bremerhaven to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 10% / 12% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Union Bremen and 3.33 for OSC Bremerhaven, a combined 4.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.9%
- 1–27.2%
- 1–46.6%
- 0–36.5%
- 0–25.8%
Recent form
Union Bremen
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs OSC Bremerhaven · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Aumund-Vegesack · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eiche Horn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hemelingen · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Woltmershausen · 2-2 (D)
OSC Bremerhaven
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Woltmershausen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Bremen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Oberneuland · 12-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Brinkumer SV · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Leher TS · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Bremen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hemelingen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 28 |
| 2 | Blumenthaler SV | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 27 |
| 3 | Brinkumer SV | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 27 |
| 4 | OSC Bremerhaven | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 22 |
| 5 | Aumund-Vegesack | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | Geestemünde | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | Schwachhausen | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 8 | Vatan Sport | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 9 | Union Bremen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Eiche Horn | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -11 | 12 |
| 11 | Leher TS | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 12 | Grohn | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -20 | 10 |
| 13 | BTS Neustadt | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 14 | Oberneuland | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -29 | 5 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen III | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 4 |
| 16 | Woltmershausen | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -27 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is OSC Bremerhaven win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.