Union Brescia vs Arzignano Valchiampo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Union Brescia and 0.98 for Arzignano Valchiampo, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Union Brescia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Union Brescia win

50.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.54 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union Brescia home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arzignano Valchiampo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Brescia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Union Brescia and 0.98 for Arzignano Valchiampo, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Union Brescia win50%

Draw26%

Arzignano Valchiampo win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.3%
1–112.1%
2–09.5%
2–19.4%
0–08.0%

Recent form

Union Brescia

2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cittadella · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Giana Erminio · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lecco · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 1-1 (D)

Arzignano Valchiampo

2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Novara · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cittadella · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U23 · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Carpi · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	12	27
2	Trento	11	6	5	0	11	23
3	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	10	22
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	11	6	2	3	5	20
5	Treviso	11	5	4	2	4	19
6	Ospitaletto	11	5	3	3	7	18
7	Pergolettese	11	4	5	2	1	17
8	Alcione	11	3	6	2	1	15
9	Lecco	11	3	5	3	3	14
10	Albinoleffe	11	3	5	3	1	14
11	Desenzano Calvina	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Lumezzane	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	PRO Vercelli	11	3	3	5	-9	12
15	Giana Erminio	11	2	5	4	-2	11
16	Novara	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	-6	10
18	Juventus U23	11	2	4	5	-7	10
19	Folgore Caratese	11	1	4	6	-6	7
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Union Brescia win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.