Stadio Mario Rigamonti · Analysis updated 04:58 UTC
Union Brescia vs Casarano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Union Brescia and 1.11 for Casarano, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Union Brescia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union Brescia home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casarano away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Brescia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Union Brescia and 1.11 for Casarano, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Union Brescia
- 2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cittadella · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Giana Erminio · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lecco · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 1-1 (D)
Casarano
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cavese · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Salernitana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Sorrento · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs SS Monopoli · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Savoia · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-20T18:00:00.000Z · Union Brescia 0-0 Casarano (Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs)
- 2026-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · Union Brescia 3-0 Casarano (Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs)
Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | Salernitana | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Casarano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Union Brescia | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Potenza | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 6 | Lecco | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Pianese | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Cittadella | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Casertana | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Catania | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Pineto | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Giana Erminio | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Renate | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Crotone | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Ravenna | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Vis Pesaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Audace Cerignola | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Ternana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Alcione | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Lumezzane | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 22 | Juventus U23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 23 | Campobasso FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Gubbio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Trento | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atalanta II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | SS Monopoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Cosenza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.