Stadio Mario Rigamonti · Referee S. Gauzolino · Analysis updated 04:57 UTC
Union Brescia vs Cittadella Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Union Brescia and 0.78 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Union Brescia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Union Brescia win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union Brescia home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cittadella away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Brescia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 31% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Union Brescia and 0.78 for Cittadella, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.6%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–09.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 14.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 62.7% vs market 49.7%, edge +13.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 49.7% | 62.7% | 1.59 | +13.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.8% | 75.5% | 1.32 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.2% | 30.5% | 3.28 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 44.9% | 45.0% | 2.22 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 55.0% | 55.0% | 1.82 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 25.0% | 24.5% | 4.08 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.3% | 69.5% | 1.44 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 50.3% | 37.3% | 2.68 | -13.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Union Brescia
- 2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cittadella · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Giana Erminio · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lecco · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 1-1 (D)
Cittadella
- 2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Brescia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Novara · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecco · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-03T18:30:00.000Z · Union Brescia 2-1 Cittadella (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2025-12-01T19:30:00.000Z · Union Brescia 1-1 Cittadella (Serie C - Girone A)
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | Trento | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Union Brescia | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Treviso | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Ospitaletto | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Pergolettese | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Alcione | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Lecco | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Albinoleffe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Desenzano Calvina | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Lumezzane | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Athletic Carpi | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | PRO Vercelli | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 |
| 15 | Giana Erminio | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Novara | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 18 | Juventus U23 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 19 | Folgore Caratese | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 20 | Renate | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Union Brescia win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.