Union Brescia vs Cittadella Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Union Brescia and 1.18 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Union Brescia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union Brescia home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cittadella away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Brescia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Union Brescia and 1.18 for Cittadella, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Union Brescia win44%

Draw26%

Cittadella win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.3%
2–19.1%
0–18.2%
2–07.7%

Recent form

Union Brescia

2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcione · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Treviso · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Trento · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Giana Erminio · 5-2 (W)

Cittadella

2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Brescia · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Novara · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecco · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-03T18:30:00.000Z · Union Brescia 2-1 Cittadella (Serie C - Girone A)
2025-12-01T19:30:00.000Z · Union Brescia 1-1 Cittadella (Serie C - Girone A)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.