Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Union Brescia and 0.50 for Desenzano Calvina, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Union Brescia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Union Brescia win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 0.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union Brescia home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Desenzano Calvina away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Brescia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 30% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Union Brescia and 0.50 for Desenzano Calvina, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Union Brescia win55%

Draw30%

Desenzano Calvina win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals52%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score28%

Correct score

1–021.7%
0–017.4%
2–013.6%
1–110.9%
0–18.7%

Recent form

Union Brescia

2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cittadella · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Giana Erminio · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lecco · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 1-1 (D)

Desenzano Calvina

2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcione · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Folgore Caratese · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U23 · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Treviso · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	12	27
2	Trento	11	6	5	0	11	23
3	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	10	22
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	11	6	2	3	5	20
5	Treviso	11	5	4	2	4	19
6	Ospitaletto	11	5	3	3	7	18
7	Pergolettese	11	4	5	2	1	17
8	Alcione	11	3	6	2	1	15
9	Lecco	11	3	5	3	3	14
10	Albinoleffe	11	3	5	3	1	14
11	Desenzano Calvina	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Lumezzane	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	PRO Vercelli	11	3	3	5	-9	12
15	Giana Erminio	11	2	5	4	-2	11
16	Novara	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	-6	10
18	Juventus U23	11	2	4	5	-7	10
19	Folgore Caratese	11	1	4	6	-6	7
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Union Brescia win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.