Union Brescia vs Dolomiti Bellunesi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Union Brescia and 0.83 for Dolomiti Bellunesi, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Union Brescia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Union Brescia win

45.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union Brescia home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dolomiti Bellunesi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Brescia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 30% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Union Brescia and 0.83 for Dolomiti Bellunesi, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Union Brescia win46%

Draw30%

Dolomiti Bellunesi win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–015.8%
1–113.0%
0–012.9%
0–110.6%
2–09.7%

Recent form

Union Brescia

2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcione · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Treviso · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Trento · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Giana Erminio · 5-2 (W)

Dolomiti Bellunesi

2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Renate · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Giana Erminio · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	10	9	0	1	13	27
2	Trento	10	5	5	0	10	20
3	Union Brescia	10	5	4	1	9	19
4	Ospitaletto	10	5	3	2	8	18
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	5	2	3	3	17
6	Treviso	10	4	4	2	3	16
7	Alcione	10	3	6	1	2	15
8	Pergolettese	10	3	5	2	0	14
9	Lecco	10	3	4	3	3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	3	4	3	1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	3	4	3	-2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Novara	10	2	4	4	-4	10
14	Dolomiti Bellunesi	10	2	4	4	-5	10
15	Juventus U23	10	2	4	4	-6	10
16	Athletic Carpi	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	PRO Vercelli	10	2	3	5	-10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	1	5	4	-3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	1	3	6	-6	6
20	Renate	10	0	4	6	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Union Brescia win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.