Union Brescia vs Giana Erminio Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Union Brescia and 1.03 for Giana Erminio, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Union Brescia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Union Brescia win

53.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union Brescia home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Giana Erminio away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Brescia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Union Brescia and 1.03 for Giana Erminio, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Union Brescia win54%

Draw24%

Giana Erminio win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.3%
1–011.0%
2–19.7%
2–09.5%
0–16.6%

Recent form

Union Brescia

2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcione · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Treviso · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Trento · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Giana Erminio · 5-2 (W)

Giana Erminio

2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Brescia · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Renate · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Treviso · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Folgore Caratese · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · Union Brescia 5-2 Giana Erminio (Coppa Italia Serie C)
2026-02-02T19:30:00.000Z · Union Brescia 2-0 Giana Erminio (Serie C - Girone A)
2025-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · Union Brescia 2-0 Giana Erminio (Serie C - Girone A)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Union Brescia win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.