Union Carl Berner vs Heming Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Union Carl Berner and 1.69 for Heming, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Heming the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.69

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union Carl Berner home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heming away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heming to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 37% / 23% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Union Carl Berner and 1.69 for Heming, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Union Carl Berner win37%

Draw23%

Heming win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–110.0%
1–28.5%
2–18.1%
2–26.8%
0–16.2%

Recent form

Union Carl Berner

2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Frigg · 6-2 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bærum · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordstrand · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SF Grei · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ullern · 1-4 (L)

Heming

2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ullern · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SF Grei · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Frigg · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamle Oslo · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vålerenga II · 5-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Asker	24	21	1	2	49	64
2	Heming	24	14	5	5	24	47
3	Gamle Oslo	24	14	2	8	27	44
4	Vålerenga II	24	13	1	10	-9	40
5	IF Ready	24	11	6	7	14	39
6	Bærum	24	12	2	10	20	38
7	Union Carl Berner	24	12	2	10	8	38
8	Frigg	24	9	6	9	-5	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	24	9	2	13	-22	29
10	KFUM II	24	8	4	12	-13	28
11	SF Grei	24	8	1	15	-29	25
12	Ullern	24	7	2	15	-19	23
13	Nordstrand	24	6	2	16	-18	20
14	Konnerud	24	5	2	17	-27	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.