Union Comercio vs U. San Martin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Union Comercio and 1.05 for U. San Martin, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Union Comercio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Union Comercio win

45.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union Comercio home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
U. San Martin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Union Comercio win46%

Draw27%

U. San Martin win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.6%
1–012.0%
2–19.0%
0–18.8%
2–08.5%

Recent form

Union Comercio

2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Molinos El Pirata · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Agropecuaria · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T20:15:00.000Z · H vs U. San Martin · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Llacuabamba · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 0-0 (D)

U. San Martin

2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Academia Cantolao · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Union Comercio · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Cesar Vallejo · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-06T20:15:00.000Z · Union Comercio 1-0 U. San Martin (Segunda División)
2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · Union Comercio 1-0 U. San Martin (Segunda División)
2025-06-01T20:00:00.000Z · Union Comercio 1-2 U. San Martin (Segunda División)
2025-04-12T18:00:00.000Z · Union Comercio 1-1 U. San Martin (Segunda División)
2019-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · Union Comercio 2-1 U. San Martin (Primera División)
2019-03-16T20:30:00.000Z · Union Comercio 0-0 U. San Martin (Primera División)
2018-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · Union Comercio 0-2 U. San Martin (Primera División)
2018-05-30T20:30:00.000Z · Union Comercio 0-0 U. San Martin (Primera División)
2017-10-02T18:15:00.000Z · Union Comercio 0-2 U. San Martin (Primera División)
2017-07-01T17:30:00.000Z · Union Comercio 3-1 U. San Martin (Primera División)

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Union Comercio	16	9	5	2	14	32
2	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	9	3	4	10	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	8	4	4	13	28
4	Molinos El Pirata	16	7	4	5	5	25
5	U. San Martin	16	7	3	6	9	24
6	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	5	6	4	2	21
7	Cesar Vallejo	15	5	4	6	1	19
8	Academia Cantolao	16	3	5	8	-11	14
9	San Marcos	14	0	0	14	-43	0
1	Bentín Tacna Heroica	16	8	5	3	9	29
2	Comerciantes	16	6	8	2	9	26
3	Minas	16	6	7	3	13	25
4	Sport Huancayo 2	16	7	4	5	9	25
5	Alianza Universidad	16	5	6	5	0	21
6	Santos	16	6	3	7	-3	21
7	Ayacucho FC	16	5	4	7	-2	19
8	Estudiantil CNI	16	4	5	7	4	17
9	Deportivo Binacional	16	2	4	10	-39	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Union Comercio win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.