Union Edelweiß vs Bad Ischl Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Union Edelweiß and 0.98 for Bad Ischl, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Union Edelweiß the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Union Edelweiß win

59.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union Edelweiß home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bad Ischl away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Union Edelweiß win59%

Draw22%

Bad Ischl win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–010.7%
1–110.5%
2–010.2%
2–19.9%
3–06.4%

Recent form

Union Edelweiß

2026-06-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gschwandt · 2-2 (D)
2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bad Schallerbach · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mondsee · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Weißkirchen / Allhaming · 2-3 (L)

Bad Ischl

2026-06-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Friedburg / Pöndorf · 2-3 (L)
2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostermiething · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vortuna Bad Leonfelden · 0-7 (L)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gschwandt · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bad Schallerbach · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-30T17:45:00.000Z · Union Edelweiß 2-0 Bad Ischl (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)
2025-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · Union Edelweiß 2-4 Bad Ischl (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)
2025-05-30T16:00:00.000Z · Union Edelweiß 4-2 Bad Ischl (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)
2024-10-25T17:00:00.000Z · Union Edelweiß 2-3 Bad Ischl (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)
2024-03-01T18:00:00.000Z · Union Edelweiß 3-1 Bad Ischl (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)
2023-08-04T16:15:00.000Z · Union Edelweiß 2-1 Bad Ischl (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)
2023-04-21T17:00:00.000Z · Union Edelweiß 3-1 Bad Ischl (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)
2022-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · Union Edelweiß 5-1 Bad Ischl (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)

Landesliga - Oberosterreich table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SK Vorwarts Steyr	29	18	5	6	32	59
2	Vortuna Bad Leonfelden	28	17	3	8	20	54
3	Bad Schallerbach	29	15	5	9	20	50
4	Union Perg	28	13	10	5	15	49
5	Weißkirchen / Allhaming	27	13	6	8	11	45
6	Friedburg / Pöndorf	27	12	8	7	15	44
7	Union Edelweiß	29	12	8	9	3	44
8	Mondsee	29	12	6	11	6	42
9	Ostermiething	28	12	4	12	1	40
10	Union Vöcklamarkt	28	11	6	11	-1	39
11	St. Martin i.M.	28	10	8	10	1	38
12	Oedt	25	9	5	11	5	32
13	Bad Ischl	29	9	3	17	-34	30
14	Pregarten	28	5	6	17	-21	21
15	Gschwandt	28	5	5	18	-43	20
16	Grün Weiß Micheldorf	28	4	6	18	-30	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Union Edelweiß win, at 59.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.