Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK · Analysis updated 07:39 UTC
Union Espanola vs Rangers de Talca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.03 for Rangers de Talca, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Union Espanola the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union Espanola home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rangers de Talca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Espanola to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Union Espanola and 1.03 for Rangers de Talca, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 52.0% vs market 44.3%, edge +7.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 52.0% | 1.92 | +7.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 71.3% | 71.8% | 1.39 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 26.9% | 27.2% | 3.68 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 44.4% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.9% | 72.8% | 1.37 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 55.8% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 28.7% | 28.2% | 3.55 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 48.0% | 2.08 | -7.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Union Espanola
- 2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs San Luis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Temuco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Rangers de Talca · 0-1 (L)
Rangers de Talca
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Antofagasta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Iquique · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T21:00:00.000Z · A vs D. Puerto Montt · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Temuco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Espanola · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Luis | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 53 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 47 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 46 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 45 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 41 |
| 7 | San Marcos de Arica | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 8 | Deportes Copiapo | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 40 |
| 9 | Deportes Temuco | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 36 |
| 10 | Union Espanola | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 36 |
| 11 | Deportes Iquique | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 35 |
| 12 | D. Puerto Montt | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 35 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -14 | 23 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -32 | 23 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -18 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.