Union La Calera vs Colo Colo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Union La Calera and 2.08 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Colo Colo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Colo Colo win

55.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 2.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union La Calera home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Colo Colo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colo Colo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 24% / 21% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Union La Calera and 2.08 for Colo Colo, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Union La Calera win24%

Draw21%

Colo Colo win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–29.6%
1–19.2%
0–27.4%
0–17.1%
1–36.6%

Recent form

Union La Calera

2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs U. Catolica · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-23T23:30:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Limache · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-31T22:15:00.000Z · H vs D. La Serena · 0-1 (L)

Colo Colo

2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · A vs D. Puerto Montt · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs A. Italiano · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs A. Italiano · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Huachipato · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	24	17	3	4	23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	13	6	5	22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	13	3	7	17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	11	6	7	13	39
5	Palestino	24	11	4	9	3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	10	4	10	8	34
7	Coquimbo Unido	23	9	5	9	3	32
8	Concepción	24	9	5	10	-1	32
9	Nublense	24	8	8	8	-9	32
10	Huachipato	23	9	4	10	-6	31
11	D. La Serena	24	7	9	8	-5	30
12	A. Italiano	23	7	7	9	-5	28
13	O'Higgins	24	8	3	13	-10	27
14	Cobresal	24	7	4	13	-10	25
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	6	5	13	-22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	4	6	14	-21	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Colo Colo win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.