Union La Calera vs D. La Serena Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.60 for D. La Serena, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives D. La Serena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

D. La Serena win

47.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union La Calera home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
D. La Serena away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates D. La Serena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 28% / 25% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Union La Calera and 1.60 for D. La Serena, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Union La Calera win28%

Draw25%

D. La Serena win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.7%
0–19.9%
1–29.4%
0–27.9%
1–07.4%

Recent form

Union La Calera

2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs U. Catolica · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-23T23:30:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Limache · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-31T22:15:00.000Z · H vs D. La Serena · 0-1 (L)

D. La Serena

2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-31T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobresal · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-14T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Concepcion · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	23	17	3	3	26	54
2	U. Catolica	23	13	3	7	17	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	12	6	5	16	42
4	Everton de Vina	23	10	6	7	12	36
5	Palestino	23	11	3	9	3	36
6	Deportes Limache	23	10	3	10	8	33
7	Nublense	23	8	8	7	-3	32
8	Concepción	23	9	4	10	-1	31
9	D. La Serena	23	7	9	7	-4	30
10	Coquimbo Unido	22	8	5	9	0	29
11	A. Italiano	23	7	7	9	-5	28
12	Huachipato	22	8	4	10	-8	28
13	O'Higgins	23	8	3	12	-8	27
14	Cobresal	23	7	3	13	-10	24
15	Universidad de Concepcion	23	6	4	13	-22	22
16	Union La Calera	23	4	5	14	-21	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is D. La Serena win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.