Estadio Sierra Nevada · Analysis updated 21:23 UTC
Union Magdalena vs Leones FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Union Magdalena and 0.75 for Leones FC, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Union Magdalena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Union Magdalena win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union Magdalena home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leones FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Magdalena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 27% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Union Magdalena and 0.75 for Leones FC, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Union Magdalena
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Popayan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Santander · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Cartagena · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 1-1 (D)
Leones FC
- 2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Orsomarso · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Santander · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Patriotas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Magdalena · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Barranquilla · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Union Magdalena win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.